Citigroup Sees Ether Crypto At $4,300 By Year-End

Citigroup issues cautious forecast for Ether

Global banking powerhouse Citigroup has released a new forecast for Ethereum (ETH), setting a base-case year-end 2025 target of $4,300. The bank outlined a wide range of scenarios:

   • Bull case: ETH could rally to $6,400 if institutional flows and network activity exceed expectations.

   • Bear case: ETH could slump to $2,200 if key growth drivers fail to materialize.

Layer-2 growth: A double-edged sword

Citi analysts emphasize that Ethereum’s value is anchored in base-layer activity. Yet, much of the ecosystem’s growth in recent months has been concentrated on Layer-2 networks such as Arbitrum, Optimism, and zkSync.

According to Citi, only 30% of Layer-2 activity passes through to Ethereum’s base layer economics. This limited capture suggests that even with robust ecosystem expansion, ETH may not directly benefit, leaving its current valuation potentially overstretched.

Ethereum ETFs: Impactful but smaller than Bitcoin’s

The launch of Ethereum ETFs has generated optimism, but Citi tempers expectations:

   • ETF inflows for ETH will likely be much smaller than Bitcoin’s.

   • Although the price impact per dollar invested could be stronger for ETH, it won’t match the sustained momentum seen in BTC ETFs.

Thus, while ETFs may provide short-term boosts, Citi views them as an incomplete catalyst for long-term valuation support.

Macro factors: Limited upside from equities

Many investors hope that global equity markets and monetary easing could lift crypto prices. Citi disagrees, noting that with the S&P 500 already near 6,600, upside potential for equities is limited.

This implies that ETH’s trajectory will depend more on internal crypto dynamics than on external macro tailwinds.

Implications for Ethereum investors

Citigroup’s forecast highlights three takeaways:

   • Layer-2 pass-through matters: If only a fraction of Layer-2 activity translates back to Ethereum, ETH’s upside will be capped.

   • ETF optimism must be measured: While ETH ETFs are important, their inflows are unlikely to rival Bitcoin’s.

   • Prepare for volatility: With a projected range of $2,200 – $6,400, ETH investors face significant uncertainty, underscoring the need for cautious positioning.

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