Will Bitcoin Break Above $120,000? Opportunities & Risks

1. Bitcoin Sets a New All-Time High but Faces Psychological Resistance

Last week, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high above $122,000, marking a major leap in its current bullish cycle. However, the rally quickly lost steam, with the price now hovering around $119,765—just below the critical psychological level of $120,000.

2. Traders On Myriad Are Split On The Next Move

On Myriad, a prediction market platform, odds are nearly evenly split:

•  - 47% believe BTC will hold above $120K

•  - Slight bearish bias indicates short-term caution among traders

Bitcoin price data

3. Technical Analysis: Opportunities & Warnings

3.1. ADX (Average Directional Index):

•  - Currently at 13, reflecting weakening momentum in the recent uptrend

•  - ADX < 20 = unclear trend ⇒ Risk of a "bull trap"

3.2. RSI (Relative Strength Index):

•  - Reading at 59 ⇒ not overbought yet, room for further upside but needs a catalyst

3.3. Squeeze Momentum Indicator:

•  - Shows a phase of “volatility compression,” often preceding strong breakouts

•  - Currently in “squeeze on” phase ⇒ A significant move could be imminent

3.4. 50/200-Day EMA Structure:

•  - The 50-day EMA is above the 200-day EMA, suggesting a medium-term bullish structure

•  - Strong support zone around $116,000

4. Key Price Levels Investors Should Watch

5. Conclusion

Current technical signals are not yet strong enough to confirm a continued uptrend, but the possibility of a breakout remains. With Bitcoin trading sideways around the $120K zone and declining volume, this may be a consolidation phase before a major move—regardless of direction.

Investors should closely monitor the price levels mentioned above in the coming days, especially through the end of this week (by July 25), as it could determine whether Bitcoin successfully holds above the $120,000 mark.