Volatility Vanishes: Crypto Awaits Powell’s Signal At Jackson Hole

Volatility vanishes across markets ahead of Powell’s Jackson hole speech

As calm settles across global markets, investors are closely awaiting Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium (Aug 21–23). Analysts suggest the sharp drop in volatility signals expectations of easier monetary policy, though it may also point to dangerous levels of complacency.

Markets see a sharp drop in volatility

Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility dropped to near two-year lows around 36%. Gold’s volatility index (GVZ) has halved in the past four months to 15.22%. The U.S. Treasury MOVE index slid to a 3.5-year low, while the VIX fell below 14%, far from April’s highs near 45%.

Fed rate cut expectations

The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, resuming its easing cycle after an eight-month pause. JPMorgan projects the benchmark rate could fall to 3.25%–3.5% by Q1 2026, a 100bps reduction from current levels.

Are markets becoming too complacent?

Analysts warn that record-low volatility may fuel complacency. Persistent inflation, new U.S. tariffs, and corporate bond spreads at their lowest since 2007 signal risks ahead. Goldman Sachs urged clients to maintain hedges, citing potential downside surprises in growth and bond markets.

Conclusion: Calm before the storm?

While markets enjoy a rare calm, history suggests volatility is mean-reverting. With risks ranging from rates to inflation and geopolitics, today’s calm may simply be the calm before the storm.

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