Trader Eugene Places a Big Bet on an Ethereum Crypto Rally

After a long period of being overshadowed by Bitcoin's dominance, Ethereum (ETH) seems to have been forgotten by many traders. However, according to prominent community trader Eugene, this very 'neglect' is creating one of the most attractive investment opportunities in the current crypto market. In a deeply analytical post, he has declared a bet on a market breakout this very week, with ETH as the focus.

Eugene's logic is built on three main theses:

1. "Light" Positioning After a Full Capitulation The first and most important point is that the current structural positioning in ETH is "extremely light." Eugene recalls the crash of April 2025, when ETH fell from $4,000 to $1,300 and the ETH/BTC ratio hit a multi-year low. This drop completely "shook out" weak-handed whales and traders. As a result, the way ETH is traded today is fundamentally different from two years ago. Almost no one considers ETH their main holding anymore, and many traders even refuse to touch it. Because of this, from a high-timeframe (HTF) perspective, trader positioning in ETH is near a three-year low, meaning potential selling pressure is minimal.

2. ETH: The Next Destination for Institutions and TradFi The second thesis argues that ETH will become the next logical destination for capital from institutions. Eugene admits he was initially skeptical, but recent positive regulatory developments in the U.S. have changed his view. He predicts that institutions, after having established their Bitcoin allocations, will soon look for a new target, and ETH is the most logical choice. Currently, ETH manages over 90% of all stablecoin volume, serving as the indispensable "cash engine" and foundational layer of DeFi. Shifting to other, riskier Layer 1s is commercially illogical. Furthermore, traditional finance figures like Tom Lee have begun to voice support for ETH, and the passage of stablecoin legislation in the U.S. further solidifies ETH's "legitimate and compliant" status in the eyes of institutions.

3. Significant Upside Potential and Narrative Strength Finally, Eugene points out that ETH's recent "sluggishness" compared to BTC could quickly turn into an advantage. As market momentum ignites, the narrative "it's not too late to buy ETH" could become very appealing, especially for traditional finance buyers who often have an "information lag." He calculates that for ETH to return to its all-time high, it needs to rally about 85%, which would only bring the ETH/BTC ratio back to its September 2024 level—a not-so-distant high. Even if ETH doesn't outperform BTC, should Bitcoin break past $110,000, the bull market would likely restart, and ETH rarely performs poorly in such phases.

With these points, Eugene concludes that from a mid-term structural perspective, ETH is a clear investment, and he has positioned himself accordingly.