Solana ETF Approval: Can It Propel SOL to $345? A Deep Dive

 

Solana (SOL) has shown a remarkable recovery, surging 20% in just the past two weeks (as of late September, early October 2025). This momentum is primarily driven by growing optimism surrounding the potential approval of a spot Solana Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) in the United States. Analysts predict that this approval could unleash billions of dollars in institutional capital, pushing SOL's price to targets ranging from $290 to $345, and potentially higher in the next bull cycle.

 

Regulatory Landscape and Solana ETF Approval Process

Initial Hurdles with the SEC

 

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) initially posed significant challenges. In August 2024, the SEC halted progress on two Solana ETF proposals from 21Shares and VanEck, citing concerns that SOL might be an unregistered security under U.S. law. These applications were subsequently withdrawn. The legal complexity further increased when the SEC classified Solana as an unregistered security in lawsuits against major crypto exchanges, which prevented other divisions of the SEC from considering Solana under a commodities ETF structure. The SEC also expressed concerns about staking services associated with these assets.

 

Mounting Optimism and Recent Developments

 

Despite the initial roadblocks, a new wave of optimism has emerged. Numerous major asset managers, including Fidelity, Franklin Templeton, CoinShares, Bitwise, Grayscale, Canary Capital, and VanEck, have filed amended S-1 documents for spot Solana ETFs, crucially including staking provisions.

 

 

Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Nate Geraci have noted "signs of movement from issuers and the SEC" and estimate a 90%+ probability of approval for most proposals. More recently (October 2025), some analysts estimate a 100% approval chance, citing increasing regulatory clarity. Prediction market Polymarket also places the likelihood of a spot Solana ETF approval in 2025 above 99%. The final decision deadlines for some Solana ETF applications fall between October 10th and mid-October 2025.

 

Potential Impact on SOL Price

Massive Institutional Inflows Awaiting

 

A Solana ETF approval could unlock "billions of dollars in institutional demand," mirroring the robust inflows seen after Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF approvals.

 

• Pantera Capital believes that institutions are currently "under-allocating" to SOL compared to BTC and ETH.
• Institutions currently hold less than 1% of the total SOL supply, compared to 16% for BTC and 7% for ETH.
• Institutional holdings of SOL are currently under $1 billion, whereas BTC stands at $364.2 billion and ETH at $30.7 billion. This imbalance indicates significant potential for new capital inflows.

 

As institutional capital pours in, the circulating supply on the spot market will decrease, creating natural upward price pressure.

 

Ambitious SOL Price Targets

 

Technical analyses indicate two bullish flag patterns, targeting prices from $290 to $345, signaling a 25%–50% upside potential. Other analysts set targets of $300–$500 in the next bull cycle. A more optimistic forecast links SOL breaking above its 0.0033 BTC ratio (March peak) to reach $440–$600, assuming Bitcoin reaches $200,000, and suggests an ETF approval could trigger this in October. With Solana's market cap around $119.4 billion (September 2025) – only about 5% of Bitcoin's – even small inflows could create a "disproportionately large impact."

 

Strong Precedent from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs

 

The success of spot Bitcoin ETFs (attracting billions of dollars) and spot Ethereum ETFs (with over $1 billion traded on their first day in July 2024 and total inflows of $420.9 million in a single day in October 2025) provides a strong precedent for the potential impact of a Solana ETF.

 

Staking Feature: A Competitive Edge

 

The integration of staking provisions in Solana ETF filings is a critical development. REX-Osprey's Solana + Staking ETF (SSK), launched in the U.S. in July 2025, already offers an annual staking yield of 7.3% and manages over $300 million in assets. This makes Solana ETFs more attractive than non-staking Bitcoin ETFs and potentially even U.S. Ethereum ETFs (which currently do not offer staking). Bitwise's CEO even believes Solana has an advantage over Ethereum in staking ETFs due to faster unstake times, crucial for issuers to meet timely redemption requirements.

 

Other Supporting Factors and Challenges

Solana's Robust Fundamentals

 

Solana is highly regarded for its speed, low costs, and high throughput, making it a premier choice for decentralized applications (dApps), decentralized finance (DeFi), NFTs, and GameFi. It has also emerged as a leading platform for launching meme coins.

 

• Strong Network Activity Metrics: Daily active addresses hit a record 15.39 million (July 2025).
• Stablecoin Supply: Reached $13.9 billion.
• DEX Trading Volume: Hit $125 billion in September 2025, outperforming Ethereum for 11 consecutive months.

 

Some analysts argue that Solana is currently "undervalued" by a factor of 5 compared to Ethereum, despite outperforming it on key metrics, due to a lack of institutional adoption channels.

 

Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis

 

SOL's price has rebounded 20% in the last two weeks (late September to early October 2025) due to ETF optimism. Technical indicators show a crucial price threshold of $218 for bullish momentum. SOL traded above $210 (September 2025) with resistance at $224.13 and support at $210.89. Open interest on Solana's CME futures has reached a record $2.16 billion, indicating increasing institutional participation.

 

Potential Challenges and Risks

 

• Inflation Rate: Solana's annual inflation rate is 4.3% (higher than Bitcoin's 0.8%) which could dilute price gains.
• Market Manipulation Concerns: Have historically caused the SEC to delay decisions.
• Recent Network Activity Dip: Transactions fell 10% and fees dropped almost 50% in 7 days (September 2025), while BNB Chain, Arbitrum, and HyperEVM saw strong gains.

 

 

Conclusion

 

The approval of a spot Solana ETF is highly anticipated, with many analysts and prediction markets projecting a very high likelihood of it occurring in October 2025 or sooner. If approved, these ETFs could usher in a new era of institutional capital flow into Solana, with Pantera Capital highlighting the current under-allocation by institutions to SOL. The integration of staking features, which set it apart from existing Bitcoin and potentially U.S. Ethereum ETF products, further boosts Solana's appeal. Against a backdrop of strong technological fundamentals and vibrant network activity, this influx of institutional capital could propel SOL's price to targets of $290 - $345, offering significant growth opportunities for the digital asset. Nevertheless, investors should closely monitor regulatory developments and macroeconomic factors that could influence the market.

 

Disclaimer: The content above reflects the author’s personal views and does not represent any official position of Cobic News. The information provided is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice from Cobic News.