Fed Shadows Dim Trade Truce, Market Unease Lingers

On November 4, 2025, despite a long-awaited breakthrough in the US–China trade dispute—one of the biggest sources of October's market unease—risk assets appeared unmoved. Bitcoin fell 1.7% over the week, while equities wobbled amid renewed uncertainty from the Federal Reserve. What was meant to be a relief rally turned instead into a muted response, exposing the market's growing fixation on monetary policy rather than geopolitics.

Fed's Monetary Policy Developments

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) delivered a 25 basis point rate cut. However, Fed Chair Powell's comment on “December not guaranteed” (referring to further cuts) triggered a sell-off. This hawkish tone from Powell sent Bitcoin briefly sliding below $107,000. This indicates that even with positive international trade signals, the uncertainty surrounding the Fed's monetary policy direction remains the dominant factor shaping market sentiment.

Cryptocurrency Market Fluctuations

Following Chair Powell's comments, Bitcoin fell to $108,000 and then stabilized near $108,500. Although the market saw a brief recovery to $109,780, it remained within its price range. Ethereum and BNB remained range-bound, while Solana dipped 3% to $186. The total crypto market cap remains stable at $3.7 trillion, despite weak U.S. ETF flows.

Crypto ETF Outflows and Inflows

Bitcoin ETFs witnessed significant net outflows: $471 million on October 29 and $488 million on October 31. Similarly, Ethereum ETFs also faced pressure with net outflows of $81 million on October 29 and $184 million on October 31. Notably, Solana ETFs bucked the trend, posting $69.45 million in inflows on October 29, the highest daily inflow for any ETF in 2025. It continued to see $37.33 million in inflows on October 31, marking its third straight day of gains.

US-China Trade Truce and Other Macro Factors

President Trump's meeting with President Xi yielded trade, energy, and fentanyl agreements. This accord, while typically a positive catalyst, was overshadowed by the focus on Fed policy. Furthermore, U.S. GDP data was delayed to December due due to a government shutdown, and Coinbase added $299 million in BTC holdings.

Conclusion

The events of November 4, 2025, clearly demonstrate that even significant geopolitical agreements can be overshadowed by the influence of monetary policy. Risk asset markets, particularly cryptocurrencies, are reacting more strongly to signals from the Fed than to positive international trade news. The volatility in ETF flows and Bitcoin prices reflects a market seeking clarity from monetary policymakers, underscoring the Federal Reserve's paramount importance in shaping investor sentiment.

The content above reflects the author's personal views only and does not represent any official stance of Cobic News. The information provided is for reference purposes only and should not be considered investment advice from Cobic News.