Crypto Solana Cools Down Ahead Of ETF Deadline

As the market turns its attention to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) final decision on the Solana ETF, the data reveals a surprising contradiction. According to figures from CryptoQuant, Solana’s daily transactions have fallen nearly 50%, from a peak of 125 million on July 24, 2025, to around 64 million per day. This decline comes just days before the SEC’s anticipated announcement on Friday regarding spot Solana ETF applications from VanEck, 21Shares, Bitwise, and Franklin Templeton, as compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.

This drop has caught the attention of analysts, who note that while the ETF approval could bring new momentum, the subdued activity raises doubts about whether SOL’s price will see a strong breakout—or simply follow Bitcoin’s broader trend.

Causes: Capital Rotation and Rising Competition

According to Shivam Thakral, CEO of Indian crypto exchange BuyUcoin, the sharp fall in transaction activity reflects a rebalancing of capital across the market. He explained that retail participation has cooled significantly, while liquidity has shifted toward competing ecosystems such as BNB Chain. Thakral added that technical frictions, such as validator performance issues and inconsistent user experience, have also accelerated the decline.

He described the slowdown as a combination of three overlapping forces—normalization after a period of hypergrowth, increasing competition among blockchain networks, and a broader sentiment shift within the crypto market.

Despite this, Solana remains one of the fastest and most cost-efficient Layer-1 blockchains, maintaining strong appeal among developers and DeFi projects thanks to its transaction speed and low fees.

Solana ETF: Nearly Guaranteed Approval

Following the SEC’s approval of “generic listing standards” in September, analysts consider Solana’s ETF approval to be almost certain. Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, stated in a September 30 post on X (formerly Twitter) that “Solana’s ETF approval is nearly 100% confirmed.”

Further reinforcing this optimism, Bitwise Asset Management submitted an amended ETF filing earlier this week featuring an ultra-low management fee of just 0.20%. Balchunas commented that “low fees have a near-perfect record of attracting investors,” calling the move a clear signal that Bitwise is serious about dominating the market.

At this point, the question is no longer if the Solana ETF will be approved—but when.

Solana’s Price Still Following Bitcoin

Although optimism surrounding the ETF has helped improve market sentiment, analysts remain cautious about Solana’s near-term price performance. Thakral believes Solana is unlikely to rally independently and will instead mirror Bitcoin’s market direction.

He emphasized that for Solana to achieve sustainable growth, it must combine ETF-driven capital inflows with strong internal catalysts, such as protocol upgrades, improved validator performance, and renewed momentum in DeFi activity on the network.

This suggests that while the ETF will be a major milestone, it alone may not be enough to spark a new rally unless Solana rebuilds confidence and engagement within its ecosystem.

Long-Term Outlook: Strength From Within

While the upcoming ETF could attract new investor interest and short-term liquidity, Solana’s long-term value will depend on its technological resilience and network stability. Competing against other Layer-1 ecosystems such as Ethereum, BNB Chain, and Avalanche will require Solana to strengthen its infrastructure, reduce network outages, and enhance user experience.

The maturing crypto market is forcing projects to redefine themselves—moving away from token-driven hype toward sustainable, utility-based growth. Solana’s next chapter will depend on its ability to prove its reliability and scalability in an increasingly competitive environment.

Conclusion

As the ETF decision approaches, Solana finds itself balancing between optimism and uncertainty. While daily transactions have declined, the pending ETF approval still opens a window for renewed momentum and growth. However, without meaningful internal innovation, Solana may continue to “move with the tide” of Bitcoin rather than leading the next market wave.

Disclaimer: The content above reflects the author’s personal views and does not represent any official position of Cobic News. The information provided is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice from Cobic News.