Crypto Downturn: BTC Under $107K, ETH Under $3.855, ETF Outflows

Crypto Shockwave: Bitcoin Dips Below $107,000, Ethereum Below $3,850, And Massive ETF Outflows

The global cryptocurrency market experienced a significant correction in September and October 2025, witnessing a sharp decline in total market capitalization. Leading assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) plummeted below critical support levels, while spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs recorded record net outflows. This weakening reflects a shift in investor sentiment, influenced by complex macroeconomic and geopolitical factors.

Bitcoin (BTC) And Ethereum (ETH) Price Movements

September and October 2025 proved to be a volatile period for the top cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin (BTC): Dropping Below Key Support Levels

After reaching a historical peak near $124,000 in mid-August 2025 and an all-time high of $126,080 on October 6, 2025, Bitcoin began its correction phase.

By September 26, 2025, BTC prices had fallen to the $108,000 region.

In the week from October 10 to October 17, 2025, Bitcoin sharply declined from approximately $121,000 to around $103,700.

On October 17, 2025, Bitcoin hovered around $105,231, down 5.12% in 24 hours and at one point dipped below $105,000, for the first time since June of the same year.

Key support levels for Bitcoin are identified around $108,000 – $110,000, $106,000, and especially the psychological mark of $100,000. The primary resistance zone is located at $120,000 – $126,000.

As of October 23, 2025, Bitcoin was trading around $108,127, indicating an effort to maintain above support levels.

Ethereum (ETH): Under Strong Downward Pressure

Ethereum also faced intense pressure, falling below the $4,000 threshold to $3,889 on September 26, 2025.

On October 17, 2025, ETH dropped approximately 4% and traded below $3,900, reaching $3,855.61.

Ethereum's all-time high was $4,946.05 on August 24, 2025. By October 23, 2025, ETH was trading around $3,758.08.

Outflows From Spot Bitcoin And Ethereum ETFs

The price decline of leading cryptocurrency assets was accompanied by significant outflows from spot ETFs, reflecting a shift in institutional investor sentiment.

Record Net Outflows

On October 17, 2025, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw their largest net outflow since early August, totaling $536 million. Notably, Ark & 21Shares' ARKB recorded $275.15 million in outflows.

On the same day, spot Ethereum ETFs also experienced total net outflows of $232 million, with BlackRock's ETHA being the most affected.

In total, for the week ending October 20, 2025, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.23 billion in outflows, and spot Ethereum ETFs also saw $311.8 million in net outflows.

Reasons Behind The Outflow Wave

Several factors contributed to this wave of capital withdrawal:

• Macroeconomic concerns: Macroeconomic pressures, including new US tariff policies and global deleveraging events, led investors to increase their risk aversion.

• US-China trade tensions: US President Donald Trump's declaration of 100% tariffs on goods imported from China triggered a sell-off in risk assets.

• Profit-taking: After the total cryptocurrency market capitalization reached a record $4.27 trillion, many investors decided to take profits.

• Reduced interest rate cut expectations: Positive US economic data dampened hopes for an aggressive interest rate cutting cycle from the Federal Reserve (Fed), causing bond yields to surge and putting pressure on risk assets.

• Nick Ruck, Director of LVRG Research, commented: "The outflows are due to an increase in investor risk aversion, including macroeconomic pressures like new US tariff policies and broader market deleveraging events."

Recent Signs Of Reversal

However, the market witnessed a notable reversal on October 21, 2025. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $477.2 million, with BlackRock's IBIT leading the way. Spot Ethereum ETFs also attracted $141.6 million in net inflows. The return of positive capital flows suggests that institutional sentiment is gradually stabilizing, reflecting renewed confidence in crypto as a diversification tool amidst economic uncertainty.

Total Market Capitalization and Other Weakening Factors

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization sharply declined from a record high of $4.27 trillion to approximately $3.7 trillion by mid-October 2025, evaporating about $300 billion in just the last week of September.

Key Weakening Factors

• Mass Liquidations: The combination of the above factors created a "perfect storm," leading to a cascade of leveraged position liquidations on exchanges, wiping out over $20 billion and affecting more than 1.5 million traders.

• Whale Selling Pressure: Several large wallets offloaded significant amounts of Bitcoin, increasing supply and pushing prices down.

• Fragile Confidence and Thin Liquidity: Despite strong investor confidence, crypto market liquidity can sometimes be thin, leading to rapid price drops.

Insights and In-Depth Analysis

Amidst market volatility, experts have offered various insights into the upcoming outlook.

Market Sentiment and Recovery Opportunities

ETF outflows signal increased market fragility in the short term. However, some veteran analysts suggest that the October downturn could be a precursor to another historic recovery, similar to late 2020. On-chain data shows strong accumulation by retail to medium-sized investors even as prices fall.

The Role of ETFs and Correlation with Other Assets

The approval of spot ETFs triggered rapid market growth in early 2024. However, volatility in ETF flows can also lead to temporary price declines. Notably, while Bitcoin fell, gold prices reached new record highs, highlighting the contrast between two assets considered "safe havens."

Long-Term Outlook

Experts still expect 2025 to be a pivotal year for the cryptocurrency market. With political, legal, and technological factors converging, unprecedented growth potential could be unlocked, with Bitcoin projected to easily surpass the $125,000 mark.

Conclusion

The weakening of the crypto market in September and October 2025 resulted from a combination of factors, from geopolitical and macroeconomic tensions to profit-taking and market liquidations. Despite facing challenges, recent ETF flows have shown signs of stabilization, and long-term confidence in the potential of Bitcoin and Ethereum remains. Investors should closely monitor macroeconomic developments and ETF flow dynamics to make informed decisions.

Disclaimer: This article is intended solely to provide information and market insights at the time of publication. We make no promises or guarantees regarding performance, returns, or the absolute accuracy of the data. All investment decisions are the sole responsibility of the reader.