Crypto Derivatives Traders Bullish Despite September Risks

Bitcoin Holds Gains Ahead Of A Risky September

Bitcoin has climbed 3% over the past two days, trading around $110,000 according to CoinGecko data. The recovery comes as the derivatives market shows signs of preparing for major volatility linked to upcoming U.S. jobs data. Although aggressive buying volume has not surged, CoinGlass data indicates that passive bids at the 10% order book depth have provided support for prices.

Signals From The Derivatives Market

In the past two days, open interest on perpetual contracts has risen 2.35%, reaching $30 billion. This reflects how traders are positioning ahead of key economic data releases. However, September’s historical bearish seasonality is forcing U.S. investors to carefully reassess strategies before the September 30 fiscal year-end.

Options Indicate Optimism

According to Sean Dawson, Head of Research at Dervie, options expiring on September 26 show a bullish bias, with open interest concentrated at the $120,000, $130,000, and $140,000 strike prices. Market makers are currently “net long gamma,” meaning that both upward and downward moves are likely to be tempered by hedging activity from dealers, limiting the potential for sharp price swings.

Risks Still Present

Despite the optimistic outlook, the one-week 25 delta skew has jumped from 6.75 to 12, signaling increased demand for downside protection. This reflects cautious investor sentiment heading into September, a month historically associated with negative performance for Bitcoin.

Macroeconomic Factors Will Decide The Direction

The immediate focus is Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls report. A strong jobs report may help limit losses during the “red September” season but is unlikely to spark a major rally. Meanwhile, markets have already priced in a high likelihood of a 25 basis-point Fed rate cut. Should the Fed fail to deliver, September could prove even more painful for the crypto market.

Conclusion

The Bitcoin derivatives market is showing cautious optimism: traders are betting on near-term upside but continue to hedge against downside risks. With macroeconomic uncertainty and seasonal headwinds, September will be a crucial test for both traders and the broader crypto market.

Disclaimer: The content above reflects the author’s personal views and does not represent any official position of Cobic News. The information provided is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice from Cobic News.