Crypto, Bitcoin, Ethereum Rally, Awaiting Year-End Breakout?
Bitcoin And Ethereum Defy September Trends
September is typically a quiet month for the cryptocurrency market. However, this year tells a completely different story. Bitcoin has surged more than 6% since the beginning of the month, while Ethereum has also posted a 4% gain, defying its usual seasonal weakness. According to data from CoinGecko, Bitcoin is currently trading between $115,680 and $116,300 after hitting a short-term peak of $116,245, signaling that buying pressure remains strong.
Key Drivers Behind The Market Rally
The primary momentum comes from expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in 2025. The probability of three rate cuts has jumped significantly from 22% to 49% in just two weeks, based on data from Polymarket. This factor is widely viewed as a major catalyst pushing capital into risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.
In addition, the options market is showing clear optimism. The number of call contracts—representing bullish bets—now outnumbers puts by a factor of 2.5, reflecting investors’ growing confidence in a strong year-end performance. Meanwhile, Ethereum is benefiting from a supply shock as institutional demand rises while issuance continues to decline. A report from digital asset bank Sygnum highlights that this supply-demand dynamic, combined with improving regulatory and fundamental signals, has given new momentum to ETH after a muted period from 2022 to 2024.
Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Forecast For Late 2025
Market data suggests Bitcoin has a 37% chance of reaching $125,000 or higher by year-end. Ethereum also appears well-positioned, with a 40% probability of closing above $5,000 and a 20% chance of surpassing $6,000. These figures underscore the growing optimism within the investment community, especially as macroeconomic conditions continue to turn favorable.
Expert Perspective
Sean Dawson, Head of Research at Derive, believes the market is only halfway through its year-end rally. He emphasized that while short-term volatility may still occur in the latter half of September due to seasonality, the broader fundamentals remain supportive of a stronger breakout in the fourth quarter.
Conclusion
The combination of monetary policy shifts, expectations of Fed rate cuts, bullish options market data, and rising institutional demand is painting a highly optimistic outlook for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Analysts suggest this may only be the beginning of the second half of a historic bull cycle, opening the door for a potential breakout by the end of 2025.
Disclaimer: The content above reflects the author’s personal views and does not represent any official position of Cobic News. The information provided is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice from Cobic News.