Crypto Market Stable as Bitcoin Awaits Macro Catalyst

The cryptocurrency market is showing remarkable calm in the final days of June. According to observations from the 4E platform as of 15:00 (UTC+8) on June 30, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is holding steady around $107,631. Over the past 72 hours, the asset has primarily traded within a narrow range of $106,300 to $108,700, indicating a phase of high-level sideways consolidation. Other major altcoins such as Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA) also recorded slight gains, bringing the total crypto market capitalization to approximately $3.28 trillion.

This price stability is reinforced by very positive fundamental signals from on-chain data. Most notably, the balance of Bitcoin on exchanges has fallen to a historic low. This is a classic indicator that investors are withdrawing Bitcoin to private wallets for long-term holding, rather than keeping it on exchanges ready to sell. This accumulation trend by long-term capital is building a very strong support structure for the market floor. Additionally, the major options contract expiry on the Deribit exchange last Friday did not cause significant negative volatility, suggesting that short-term selling pressure has been well-absorbed and relieved.

Concurrently, macroeconomic factors are also becoming more favorable. Recent statements from multiple U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) officials continue to carry a dovish tone, strongly reinforcing market expectations for a potential interest rate cut in July or September. Consequently, a weakening U.S. Dollar Index and falling U.S. Treasury yields are creating a supportive environment for risk-on assets like crypto. In a different development, a recent report from the World Bank, while acknowledging the liquidity advantages of crypto assets, stated they are not yet suitable as official reserves. This reflects the reality that crypto is still in the process of establishing its institutional standing and gaining recognition from global bodies.

Overall, 4E assesses that the Bitcoin market is in an interesting tug-of-war phase, at the intersection of technical consolidation and a macroeconomic policy game. On one side is a solid support foundation built from on-chain accumulation and an increasingly favorable macro environment. On the other is the absence of a catalyst strong enough to break the sideways momentum. Therefore, while short-term volatility may still exist, investors are advised to maintain caution and closely monitor policy moves and capital flows to make informed decisions.