Bitcoin Pulls Back After Record High, Eyes $150,000 by End of 2025

The Bitcoin (BTC) market has recently experienced significant volatility. After setting new all-time highs, BTC prices underwent a slight correction. However, robust fundamental indicators and derivatives data suggest that investor confidence remains strong, with many predictions pointing towards a 150,000 USD target by the end of 2025.

This article will delve into the key factors shaping Bitcoin's trajectory, from recent price movements to market sentiment and institutional capital flows.

Despite the recent correction, experts largely believe Bitcoin is on track to hit 150,000 USD by late 2025, driven by institutional adoption and supply scarcity.

Recent Price Action and New All-Time Highs

Bitcoin reached new all-time highs, trading around 126,219 USD to 126,296 USD on October 6-7, 2025. This surge marked a significant milestone, but was soon followed by a price correction, pushing BTC down by 4.2% to approximately 122,000 USD to 123,883 USD.

Factors that fueled this all-time high rally include:

Surging Bitcoin ETF Inflows: Spot Bitcoin ETFs have witnessed massive capital inflows. In the most recent week, total inflows into Bitcoin-related exchange-traded products (ETPs and ETFs) reached 3.55 billion USD, pushing total assets under management to 195.2 billion USD. On October 7, 2025 alone, U.S. spot ETFs attracted 1.21 billion USD in net inflows, the second-highest daily figure in their history. Bitwise predicts total Q4 2025 ETF inflows could surpass 2024's record 36 billion USD.

Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Political Tensions: Unstable economic conditions and political tensions in Washington (such as a potential U.S. government shutdown) have prompted investors to seek alternative assets, including Bitcoin, as a safe haven.

Anticipated Fed Rate Cuts: Expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later this month also contributed to boosting risk-sensitive, non-yielding assets like Bitcoin. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is an 89% probability of a rate cut in October 2025, which historically tends to fuel financial market rallies.

Derivatives Data and Resilient Market Sentiment

Despite the price correction, derivatives data continues to signal robust bullish sentiment in the market:

Futures Open Interest and Futures Premiums: Bitcoin open interest across major exchanges has reached unprecedented levels, around 72 billion USD, with some reports indicating totals of 90.7 billion USD to 91.59 billion USD in early October 2025. Two-month Bitcoin futures premiums are hovering around 8% annually, which falls within the neutral to bullish range (5%-10%). This indicates that traders are positioning for an upside trend without excessive overconfidence, mitigating the risk of cascading liquidations.

Record-Low Exchange Balances: Bitcoin balances on exchanges have dropped to a 5-year low of approximately 2.38 million BTC (down from 2.99 million BTC a month prior). Some data providers even estimate a 7-year low of 2.45 million BTC. This decline signals strong accumulation by investors, particularly institutions, who are moving their Bitcoin off exchanges for long-term storage.

Institutional Accumulation and Supply Shock

Institutional demand continues to be a primary driver for Bitcoin's price:

Overwhelming Institutional Inflows: Companies like MicroStrategy and Metaplanet continue to accumulate BTC as a reserve asset. Q3 2025 saw public companies add 190,611 BTC, worth approximately 23.36 billion USD. Notably, in 2025, institutions have purchased 944,330 BTC, outpacing new supply from miners (127,622 BTC) by about 7.4 times, creating a significant supply-demand imbalance.

"Supply Shock": Approximately 6.7% of the total Bitcoin supply is now locked in ETFs, and another 3% is held by corporations like MicroStrategy, leading to a "massive supply shock" according to industry experts.

Sovereign Wealth Funds: These funds are also reportedly actively engaging in the Bitcoin market, diversifying portfolios and using Bitcoin as a hedge against geopolitical instability and monetary expansion.

150,000 USD Target by End of 2025 and Other Predictions

Many analysts and market experts are predicting Bitcoin will reach 150,000 USD or higher by the end of 2025:

Michael Saylor and Galaxy Digital: MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor believes Bitcoin could reach 150,000 USD by the end of 2025 due to institutional accumulation and declining confidence in the fiat monetary system. Alex Thorn of Galaxy Digital projects a range of 150,000 USD - 180,000 USD by the end of 2025.

Standard Chartered and Other Experts: Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital assets at Standard Chartered, believes Bitcoin could reach 135,000 USD in the short term and potentially 200,000 USD by year-end if current conditions persist. Nakamoto CEO, David Bailey, also made a 150,000 USD prediction, suggesting whale liquidations are keeping Bitcoin's price lower.

Even more bullish long-term predictions suggest Bitcoin could reach 200,000-250,000 USD by 2026 and even 500,000 USD in the future.

Other Factors and Potential Risks

"Uptober" Trend and Halving Cycle: October is historically a bullish month for Bitcoin ("Uptober"), often setting the stage for strong Q4 performance. 2025 is the year after the halving, a historical factor that typically fuels bull cycles.

Environmental Concerns (ESG): Bitcoin's massive energy consumption remains an environmental and ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) concern. However, the Bitcoin mining industry is gradually shifting towards cleaner energy sources.

Correction Risks and Sustainability: While the overall outlook is positive, Bitcoin's history shows significant corrections after all-time highs (e.g., over 80% drops in 2018 and 75% in 2022). Some analysts warn of "overbought" market conditions and a potential new bear cycle following the current bullish phase.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's recent price correction can be viewed as a healthy profit-taking event after reaching new record highs. However, fundamental factors such as robust ETF inflows, record-low exchange balances, and institutional accumulation indicate that real demand remains substantial.

Stable derivatives data and optimistic predictions from market experts reinforce confidence in Bitcoin's potential to reach the 150,000 USD target by the end of 2025, despite the inherent risks and volatility of the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin is increasingly recognized as a core part of the global financial system, attracting both institutional and individual investors.

The content above reflects the author’s personal views and does not represent any official position of Cobic News. The information provided is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice from Cobic News.